从“社会主义者的胜利”到“两个政权并存”

李燕

俄罗斯研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 203 ›› Issue (1) : 162-181.

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俄罗斯研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 203 ›› Issue (1) : 162-181.
本期文章

从“社会主义者的胜利”到“两个政权并存”

  • 中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员
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摘要

2015年下半年以来,摩尔多瓦经历了剧烈的社会动荡,这是摩尔多瓦自独立以来执行的亲西方路线带来的经济后果,也是其社会分化的反映。在此背景下,社会党主席伊戈尔·多顿在2016年11月第二轮总统选举中当选摩尔多瓦第五任总统。多顿在竞选时明确表达了亲俄罗斯的方针,并在当选后在媒体公开。这表明,多顿总统治下的摩尔多瓦将出现政治转向。但其政府和议会实际上还是由亲西方的派别所操控,因此,在摩尔多瓦就出现了“两个政权并存”的局面。这种局面使大选后的摩尔多瓦陷入了国家发展道路选择的困境:向西还是“朝东”,反映出总统与议会及政府间的矛盾,实际上体现出走西方“民主”之路还是传统的亲俄罗斯道路之间的不可调和性,也反映出摩尔多瓦国家发展道路的不确定性。要规避不确定性的消极影响,就要求各党派摒弃分歧,在国家利益的基础上寻求一致。

Abstract

Moldova has experienced severe social unrest since the second half of 2015, which was the economic consequences of Moldova’s pro-western route since its independence and was also the reflection of social differentiation of Moldova. Under this background, Igor Dodon, the chairman of the Socialist Party, was elected as the fifth President of Moldova in the second-round Presidential Election in November 2016. During election campaigns, Igor Dodon expressed clearly his pro-Russian policy, which was published in the media after the election. It shows that Moldova will witness a political turning under President Igor Dodon, but his government and Parliament are actually controlled by pro-Western factions. As a result, there appear “coexistence of the two regimes” in Moldova. This situation leads Moldova into a dilemma in choosing its national development path: to go west or to “turn east”. This reflects contradictions between the President, the parliament and the government. In fact, it reflects the irreconcilable contradictions between Western “democratic” road and the traditional pro-Russian path, in addition to uncertainties of the national development path of Moldova. In order to avoid negative impacts of uncertainties, it requires that all parties abandon their differences and seek consistency on the basis of national interests.

关键词

摩尔多瓦 / 伊戈尔·多顿 / 总统大选

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李燕. 从“社会主义者的胜利”到“两个政权并存”[J]. 俄罗斯研究. 2017, 203(1): 162-181
中图分类号: D73/77   

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