关于俄罗斯是否患上“荷兰病”的实证分析

郭晓琼

俄罗斯研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 159 ›› Issue (5) : 91-101.

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俄罗斯研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 159 ›› Issue (5) : 91-101.
本期文章

关于俄罗斯是否患上“荷兰病”的实证分析

  •  郭晓琼
作者信息 +

An Empirical Analysis Regarding Whether Russia is Suffering from “Dutch disease”

  •  GUO  Xiao-Qiong
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文章历史 +

摘要

俄罗斯是否患上“荷兰病”的问题一直是个学术界近年来争论的焦点。本文根据 “荷兰病”的理论模型,分别从国际油价上涨是否导致汇率上升、制造业部门是否表现出“去工业化”现象和工资上涨的效应是否存在这三方面,运用协整检验等实证分析方法,讨论了俄罗斯是否患上“荷兰病”的问题,并综合三方面的实证分析结果,得出了俄罗斯存在一定程度的“荷兰病”现象的结论。

Abstract

Whether Russia is suffering from “Dutch disease” has been a focus of debate in the academic community in recent years. Based on the theoretical model of “Dutch disease” and empirical analysis approaches including co-integration test, this article has discussed whether Russia is suffering from “Dutch disease” from three aspects: whether rising international oil prices led to the exchange rate appreciation, whether the “de-industrialization” phenomenon is appearing in the manufacturing sector and whether the wages are rising. According to the empirical analysis results, the author draws a conclusion that there exists a certain degree of “Dutch disease” phenomenon in Russia.

关键词

俄罗斯 / &ldquo / 荷兰病&rdquo / 资源转移效应 / 支出效应 / 实证分析

Key words

Russia / “Dutch disease” / Resources Transfer Effect / Expenditure Effect / Empirical Analysis
【Ключевые слова】Россия
/ «голландская болезнь» / эффект перемещения ресурсов / эффект расходов / эмпирический анализ

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郭晓琼. 关于俄罗斯是否患上“荷兰病”的实证分析[J]. 俄罗斯研究. 2009, 159(5): 91-101
GUO Xiao-Qiong. An Empirical Analysis Regarding Whether Russia is Suffering from “Dutch disease”[J]. Russian Studies. 2009, 159(5): 91-101

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